JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
Monthly labor market report from the BLS measuring job openings, hires, and quits — a leading indicator for labor market tightness and Fed policy.
What is JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)?
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report on labor market dynamics: job openings, hires, separations, quits, and layoffs across the US economy. Where NFP measures net employment change, JOLTS measures the underlying flows — how many positions are open, how many workers are leaving voluntarily versus involuntarily.
JOLTS releases monthly at 10:00 AM Eastern Time, typically 4-6 weeks after its reference month. This lag means JOLTS is less timely than NFP but reveals labor market dynamics NFP can’t capture. The Quits Rate — workers voluntarily leaving jobs as a percentage of total employment — is the most-watched JOLTS metric because it’s a leading indicator of wage pressure and labor market tightness. High quits indicate confident workers; low quits indicate fear and softer labor markets.
For futures traders, JOLTS is a second-tier labor data release. Direct market reaction is smaller than NFP, but JOLTS prints frequently set the tone for the upcoming NFP and shift Fed-cut probabilities at the margin. The Fed has repeatedly cited the Quits Rate as a tightness gauge in public comments.
How JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) works
JOLTS mechanics for futures traders:
1. Release timing. Monthly at 10:00 AM ET. Reference month is 6 weeks prior — so a release in mid-April covers February data.
2. Key numbers. Job openings (the headline, usually quoted in millions), Quits Rate (Fed’s preferred tightness gauge), Layoffs Rate, Hires Rate. Markets focus on job openings versus consensus and quits rate versus prior month.
3. Job openings versus unemployment ratio. When job openings exceed unemployed workers by a wide margin (above ~1.5:1), the labor market is considered tight and wage inflation pressure is high. The Fed has cited this ratio as a policy input.
4. Volatility profile. ES typically moves 5-15 points on a meaningful JOLTS surprise. NQ moves 25-60 points. ZN moves 3-8 ticks. Smaller than NFP but enough to affect tight-stop traders.
5. NFP preview value. JOLTS prints in the week leading up to NFP can shift first-Friday positioning. A dramatic drop in job openings before NFP often primes a soft-headline NFP reaction.
6. Prop firm rules. JOLTS is on some prop firm news lists, often as a lower-tier event. Check your firm’s specific policy.
Worked example
Concrete JOLTS example — April 1, 2026:
Consensus: 8.5M job openings, 2.2% quits rate. ES at 5,195 going into 10:00 AM ET.
The release: 8.1M job openings (cooler than consensus by 400K — meaningful), quits rate 2.0% (cooler).
10:00:01 AM: ES rallied to 5,202 on the dovish print, then settled at 5,199. ZN gained 6 ticks. The move was modest but clean — labor market cooling signal, Fed-cut probabilities ticked up.
The bigger impact came two days later when ADP also printed soft, then NFP came in at +135K versus +200K consensus on Friday. The trio of soft labor data drove ES from 5,195 to 5,250 over the three-day window.
Why traders fail JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
Trading JOLTS as if it’s NFP-sized. JOLTS individually moves markets less than NFP. Position sizing into JOLTS should reflect smaller expected ranges.
Missing the Quits Rate. The headline job openings number gets the media attention, but the Quits Rate is what the Fed actually cites. Read both.
Ignoring JOLTS in the NFP preview window. A JOLTS release in the week before NFP shifts positioning. Soft JOLTS + soft NFP is a much larger combined move than either alone.
Frequently asked questions about JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
What is JOLTS?
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures labor market flows — job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs — rather than net employment change.
When is JOLTS released?
Monthly at 10:00 AM Eastern Time, typically 4-6 weeks after the reference month. So a mid-April JOLTS covers February data.
What is the Quits Rate and why does it matter?
The Quits Rate is the percentage of total employment that voluntarily left jobs in a given month. High quits indicate workers confident enough to leave for better positions — a sign of labor market tightness and wage pressure. The Fed has cited it as a policy input.
How much does JOLTS move futures?
Typically 5-15 ES points on a meaningful surprise — smaller than NFP but enough to whipsaw tight stops. JOLTS in the week before NFP can shift first-Friday positioning meaningfully.
Do prop firms restrict trading during JOLTS?
Some do, some don't. JOLTS is often classified as a lower-tier news event compared to FOMC/CPI/NFP. Check your specific firm's news-restriction list.